TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 10, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/09/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-09-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

AUDUSD is below a recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential downside move.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7125, 0.7170 and 0.7185. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6920.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Current indecision.

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

EURGBP has formed an uptrend and is currently in a retrace move. Price has become indecisive and has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, as well as a possible range at 0.8515-0.8580. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. A break to the downside of the current consolidation could signal the end of the trend.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and also the range and if EURGBP moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8465, 0.8455 and 0.8440.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.0485-1.0625. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. Potential upside?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. GBPUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames and is testing a key support area, signalling a potential bullish move. Price is currently indecisive and is ranging between 1.2265 and 1.2390. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways – confirming the current market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2425, 1.2470, 1.2605 and 1.2630.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price reversed around 1.2905 and has since been bullish.

The USDCAD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2905 and 1.2825. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3025.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCHF continues to be bullish. Price action is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. Price is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF could be due a bearish retrace move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9885 and 0.9830. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse off the recent swing high at 0.9965.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision. Potential bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the USDJPY has reversed off the trend support area.

Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. USDJPY is looking overbought on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 128.75, 129.40, 129.85, 130.75 and 131.25.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending. Potential indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD reversed around 1855 and is now finding resistance around the diagonal resistance area, as all suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is down-trending but is currently indecisive – XAUUSD may struggle to swing lower. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. If price closes below the 1850 area, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower and continue to downtrend.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910 and 1920.

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