TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 09, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/06/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-06-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bearish.

Price was consolidating but recent price action has been bearish and has swung below the consolidation support area, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they have crossed bearish. AUDUSD is testing a key weekly support area though, suggesting potential upside.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7125, 0.7170, 0.7185 and 0.7255.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames though and is testing a key resistance area, all suggesting a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the previous bullish channel and around the horizontal levels at 0.8535, 0.8515, 0.8465 and 0.8455. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8580.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off the range support area, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

The EURUSD is indecisive and has been moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.0485 and 1.0625.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. Potential upside?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bearish.

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames and is potential forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern on higher time-frames, suggesting potential upside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2375, 1.2425, 1.2470, 1.2605 and 1.2630.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Possible uptrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bullish.

Price has closed above the range resistance area, suggesting potential further upside. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish. USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2905, 1.2825 and 1.2720.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher.

The uptrend continues. Price action is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. The USDCHF is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF may be due a bearish retrace move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9830 and 0.9715.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Potential bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

USDJPY was indecisive but has recently been bullish. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. USDJPY is looking overbought on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 127.10, 128.75, 129.40, 130.40 and 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending. Potential indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price is starting to look indecisive, suggesting that that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. XAUUSD could start ranging between 1870 and 1890 or between 1855 and 1910.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1855, 1870, 1890, 1910, 1920 and 1940.

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