TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 06, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/05/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-05-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

AUDUSD was showing signs of a potential uptrend but price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. AUDUSD is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7075, 0.7170, 0.7185, 0.7255 and 0.7345.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Potential bearish move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the upside momentum has continued.

EURGBP is up-trending and is forming a swing higher. Price is currently in a slight retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames though and is currently testing a key resistance area, signalling a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous bullish channel, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8465, 0.8455, 0.8440 and 0.8405. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8530.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is now looking indecisive. EURUSD is potentially ranging between 1.0485 and 1.0625. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. If price closes below the range support area, EURUSD may become bearish again.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.0765.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending again – GBPUSD has swung lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is looking very over-extended (oversold) on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2425, 1.2470, 1.2605, 1.2630 and 1.2700.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Ranging. Potential bearish move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed off the 1.2720 area.

The USDCAD is indecisive and is ranging between 1.2720 and 1.2905. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price action is forming a large head and shoulder reversal pattern, signalling a possible bearish move. The USD is also looking overbought across the board.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2685, 1.2640 and 1.2575.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The uptrend continues. Price action is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. The USDCHF is looking very overbought on higher time-frames (price has been bullish for weeks) – USDCHF could be due a bearish retrace move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9830, 0.9715 and 0.9675.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bullish.

Price was showing signs of bearish momentum but is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. USDJPY is looking overbought on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 127.10, 128.75, 129.40, 130.40 and 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the diagonal support area.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1910, 1920 and 1940. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1875 and 1855.

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