TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 05, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/04/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-04-2022/

AUDUSD – Uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price was down-trending but has recently been bullish. AUDUSD has swung above recent swing highs, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7225, 0.7185, 0.7170 and 0.7075. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7345 and 0.7405.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price action has formed a tight bullish channel and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that the upside may continue. Price is looking indecisive overall though and may start ranging between 0.8370 and 0.8465. The EURGBP is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move – price action is given mixed signals.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel and around the horizontal levels at 0.8360, 0.8370, 0.8405, 0.8440, 0.8455 and 0.8465.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The BOE will release a monetary policy report, monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC today.

EURUSD – Potential upside?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The EURUSD was ranging between 1.0485 and 1.0575 but recent price action has been bullish. Price has swung above the range resistance area, signalling a potential uptrend. EURUSD has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting possible upside.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0575, 1.0490 and 1.0485. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.0765.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Indecisive. Possible bullish move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The GBPUSD is indecisive. Price is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. GBPUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames and price action has formed a bullish channel on the 1 hour time-frame, all suggesting a potential bullish move. Price is also testing key support on higher time-frames, adding confidence to an upside move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2470 and 1.2425. A bullish move may find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2630, 1.2700 and 1.2765.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The BOE will release a monetary policy report, monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC today.

USDCAD – Ranging?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is now looking indecisive, as also suggested. The USDCAD could start ranging between 1.2720 and 1.2905. The moving averages have become bearish though, signalling a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2685, 1.2640 and 1.2575. Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, USDCHF has been bearish.

Price has been up-trending for weeks and is due a retrace move. Recent price action has been bearish and has swung below the trend support area and the moving averages, signalling that USDCHF may now retrace. The moving averages signal market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 0.9715 and 0.9830.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range, around the moving averages and around the previous trend support area as resistance. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.9715 and 0.9550.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Potential downtrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

USDJPY has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady. Price is looking overbought on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a bearish move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 130.40 and 131.10. A bearish move could stall or reverse around any of the horizontal support levels at 129.30, 128.80 and 127.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD has been bullish.

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price is above the moving averages, the moving averages are becoming bullish and price action has formed a diagonal support area, all suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1910, 1920 and 1940. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1875 and 1855.

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