TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 04, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/03/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-03-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding support around the moving averages and is currently bullish.

AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Most recent price action has been sideways. Price is looking a little oversold on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move. The moving averages are tightening and AUDUSD is above the moving averages, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. The major USD news today may be the catalyst in pushing price higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7075, 0.7170, 0.7185 and 0.7225.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

EURGBP – Potential downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

EURGBP was looking indecisive but recent price action is showing downside momentum – price has formed a bearish channel and a series of lower swing highs and lows. EURGBP is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a downside move. The 1 hour moving averages are about to cross bullish though, suggesting potential market indecision or a bullish move.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8440, 0.8455 and 0.8465. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8360 and 0.8310.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the range resistance area.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. EURUSD is ranging and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0485-1.0575. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.0730 and 1.0765.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

GBPUSD – Indecisive. Possible bullish move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GBPUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2425, 1.2470, 1.2560, 1.2605, 1.2700 and 1.2765. If price closes below 1.2425, GBPUSD could start down-trending again.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCAD – Up-trending. Possible indecision or bearish move?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average.

The USDCAD has since closed below both moving averages. Price is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The USDCAD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Price is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2640, 1.2665, 1.2685, 1.2720, 1.2775 and 1.2905.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the trend support area and the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. USDCHF is over-extended on higher time-frames and price has been aggressively up-trending for over a month, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9735 and 0.9675.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price was up-trending but is currently indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The major USD news today may determine if USDJPY swings higher or becomes bearish. Price is looking overbought on higher time-frames, signalling that the USDJPY may be due a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 127.10, 128.90, 129.30, 130.40 and 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. A FOMC statement and rate increase is scheduled for 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD reversed off the bearish channel support area, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending and has formed a large bearish channel. XAUUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1875, 1895, 1910, 1920 and 1940. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1855 and around the channel support area.

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