TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 03, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/05/02/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-02-may-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed off the diagonal support area and has since been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The AUDUSD is above the moving averages though and price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling that AUDUSD could become bullish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7075, 0.7170, 0.7185, 0.7225 and 0.7345.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price was looking indecisive and was potentially ranging. The EURGBP has broken below the potential range support area, signalling a possible downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. Price action has formed a bearish channel. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential bearish move on the 1 hour time-frame.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8410, 0.8440, 0.8455 and 0.8465. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8360, 0.8335, 0.8310 and 0.8295.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD is indecisive and is ranging between 1.0485 and 1.0575. Price was down-trending but is currently moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. EURUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around any of the key Fib levels and around 1.0730 and 1.0765.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Indecisive

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has become indecisive, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between 1.2425 and 1.2605. GBPUSD is looking oversold on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish retrace move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2700 and 1.2765.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD has reversed off the moving averages.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. USDCAD is testing key resistance on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could struggling to swing higher and could become bearish.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2775, 1.2720, 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2640. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.2875 and 1.2905.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Time for a bearish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. USDCHF is over-extended on higher time-frames and price has been aggressively up-trending for over a month, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9755 and 0.9675.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend? Potential indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

USDJPY has been up-trending for weeks. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move. The USDJPY is starting to look indecisive and price action has recently been sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 127.10, 128.90, 129.30, 130.40 and 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price closed below 1875 and has since been bearish.

GOLD was looking temporarily indecisive but is now down-trending again. Price action has formed a bearish channel and price is currently forming a swing lower and testing the channel support area. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1875, 1895, 1910, 1920 and 1940. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

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