TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – 02 May, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/29/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-28-29-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price was bullish.

AUDUSD has since become bearish again and is currently forming a swing lower. Price is clearly down-trending but is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling that the downtrend may becoming to an end. AUDUSD is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7075, 0.7170, 0.7185 and 0.7225. Price may reverse around the diagonal support area and form a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market indecision. Potential downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP is looking indecisive. Price was ranging but has broken below the potential range support area, signalling a possible downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. Price action has formed a bearish channel. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential bearish move on the 1 hour time-frame.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8440, 0.8455 and 0.8465. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.8335, 0.8310 and 0.8295.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending. Market indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been bullish.

Price action has formed a large bearish move. Price is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. EURUSD is starting to look indecisive though and is forming a potential range at 1.0485-1.0575. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frame, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.0485, 1.0575, 1.0730 and 1.0765. If EURUSD closes below 1.0485, price may attempt a move lower.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Downtrend? Possible indecision?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price has formed a large bearish move and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways and GBPUSD is currently above the moving averages, all suggesting market indecision – the downside momentum could be over. GBPUSD is testing key support on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2425, 1.2500, 1.2700, 1.2765 and 1.2980.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been bullish.

The USDCAD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently testing the recent highs at 1.2875. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is clearly indecisive on higher time-frames and is testing consolidation resistance, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2775, 1.2720, 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2640. The USDCAD may reverse around the current highs at 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Market indecision?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a retrace move, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price is starting to look indecisive though and may start ranging between 0.9675 and 0.9755. The USDCHF is over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9675 and 0.9550. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the most recent swing high at 0.9755.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish.

Price has been up-trending for weeks. The USDJPY is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move. Price is below the shorter-term moving average – confirming the weakening upside momentum. The moving averages are still bullish though and USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 127.10, 128.90, 129.30 and 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price was down-trending but the most recent retrace move has formed a higher swing high, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel and the moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the weakening downside. If GOLD closes below 1875, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1875, 1895, 1910, 1920 and 1940.

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