TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 28 & 29, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/27/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-27-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower.

Price continues to downtrend and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price action has formed a tight bearish channel and price is moving within the channel. The AUDUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish retrace move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7155, 0.7185, 0.7225 and 0.7345. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

EURGBP – Market indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways.

Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between 0.8390 and 0.8465. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that EURGBP may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.8335 and 0.8310. Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower.

The EURUSD is clearly down-trending. Price is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. EURUSD is looking oversold on higher time-frames, signalling a potential retrace move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.0570 and 1.0700. Price could continue to find support around the current lows at 1.0485.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

GBPUSD – Downtrend? Possibly over-extended?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower, as suggested in our last analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly bearish. Price action is currently forming a lower swing low. GBPUSD is looking very oversold on higher time-frames and is testing a key support area, all suggesting a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2500, 1.2700 and 1.2765. Price may continue to find support around the recent lows at 1.2425.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2775, 1.2685 and 1.2665. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2855 and 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

USDCHF – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has swung higher, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. USDCHF is looking overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential retrace move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9525 and 0.9515. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9755.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

USDJPY – Up-trending. Sharp bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

USDJPY continues to uptrend and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price is looking very over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling a potential sharp bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 129.30 and 128.85. USDJPY could reverse off the recent highs at 131.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US Price Index Figure will be released at 1230 UTC (29th).

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

GOLD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1895, 1910, 1920, 1940 and 1955. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1875.

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