TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 27, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/26/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-26-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower.

AUDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. AUDUSD is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7225, 0.7345 and 0.7405. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 0.7120.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Possible bearish move?

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames though and is currently testing key resistance, suggesting a potential bearish move lower.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8435, 0.8395, 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.8335 and 0.8330. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8465.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish.

Price action is forming a large bearish move and is down-trending. The moving averages suggest that the downside direction may continue – they are bearish and widening. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0705, 1.0730 and 1.0765.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Downtrend? Possibly over-extended?

GBPUSD has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price has formed a strong bearish move, signalling a potential downtrend. GBPUSD is currently pushing lower. Price is looking oversold on higher time-frames and is testing a key support area, suggesting that the selling could be over – the GBPUSD could become bullish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2700 and 1.2765.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The USDCAD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2775, 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2640.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 2230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. Price is moving within a clear bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. USDCHF is around the channel resistance area though and is looking over-extended, signalling a potential bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9525 and 0.9515. Price could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

The USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price has been strongly up-trending since the beginning of April 2022. Price is now in a retrace move. For the first time since the uptrend started price has closed below the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, signalling that price may move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 125.20, 126.15, 127.05, 128.90 and 129.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The BOJ will release their outlook report during the end of tomorrow’s Tokyo session.

XAUUSD – Down-trending. Potential indecision?

GOLD has been bearish and has been finding support around 1895, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. XAUUSD is currently struggling to swing lower though and may start ranging between 1895 and 1910.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1910, 1918, 1940 and 1955. A bearish move could continue to find support around 1895.

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