TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 25, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/22/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-chart-april-22-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a retrace move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price closed below the 0.7345 support area and has since been bearish.

AUDUSD is very bearish and is down-trending again. Price action is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is looking over-extended though, suggesting that a retrace move may be due.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around 0.7345.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – price is up-trending. EURGBP is currently in a slight retrace move after finding resistance around 0.8430. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and widening. EURGBP was down-trending on higher time-frames but is now looking indecisive.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.8335 and 0.8330. Price could continue to find resistance around 0.8430.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential downtrend? Possible bearish fake-out?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD found support around the horizontal channel support area at 1.0765.

Price has since been bearish and has swung below the horizontal channel support area, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages continue to signal market indecision though – they are tightening and are moving sideways. EURUSD has been down-trending on higher time-frames for a number of weeks and is starting to look a little over-extended, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0765, 1.0820 and 1.0920.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trend? Possibly over-extended?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been very bearish.

Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling a potential downtrend. GBPUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames though and could be due a bullish move, suggesting a bullish swing higher on the 1 hour time-frame.

Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the moving averages. Price could find support around the current lows at 1.2735.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Potential uptrend

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The USDCAD was looking indecisive and slightly bearish but recent price action has been very bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area and is forming a swing higher, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. The USDCAD continues to be choppy and indecisive on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2665 and 1.2640.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1500 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The USDCHF is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is moving within a clear bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. The USDCHF is around the bullish channel resistance area, suggesting that price could find resistance and start a retrace move. The USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9525, 0.9515 and 0.9455. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.9585 and around the channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been finding support around the diagonal support area, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price has been strongly up-trending since the beginning of April 2022. USDJPY is currently in a retrace move. For the first time since the uptrend started price has closed below the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, signalling that price may move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 125.20, 126.15, 127.65, 128.90 and 129.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GOLD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

Price continues to look indecisive but has formed some lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, confirming that the downside direction could continue. GOLD is currently finding support around the horizontal support area at 1915.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area, if XAUUSD closes below 1915 and around the horizontal levels at 1940, 1955, 1955 and 1960. Price could reverse off the 1915 support area.

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