TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – April 22, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/21/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-21-2022/

AUDUSD – Possible indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the AUDUSD is currently finding support around 07345.

Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – the AUDUSD is down-trending. Recent price action has been sideways though and is looking indecisive. Price is possibly ranging between 0.7345 and 0.7460. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. If AUDUSD closes below the support area at 0.7345, price could start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around 0.7405.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – End of the downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to downtrend long-term and is currently in a large retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the retrace move may continue. If the EURGBP closes below the moving averages and diagonal support area, price may attempt to swing lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8260, 0.8295, 0.8330, 0.8335, 0.8360, 0.8375 and 0.8440.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

German services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1430 UTC.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price reversed around the 1.0935 area.

The EURUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0765-1.0935 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

German services and manufacturing PMI figures will be released at 0730 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The GBPUSD continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become bullish and swing higher on the 1 hour time-frame.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3140 and 1.3160.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1430 UTC today.

USDCAD – Potential downtrend? Market indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bullish.

Price was showing signs of a potential downtrend – price action formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – but the USDCAD has been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and key resistance levels, suggesting that USDCAD could no longer downtrend. Price could become indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2460, 1.2530, 1.2540, 1.2575, 1.2640 and 1.2665.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9515, 0.9455, 0.9410 and 0.9365.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

USDJPY is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has been very bullish for a number of weeks and is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish retrace move lower. The moving averages confirm the potential bearish move – they are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 127.65, 126.15 and 125.20. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 129.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

GOLD is indecisive and is ranging between 1940 and 1957. The moving averages are starting to move sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1960, 1980 and 1995. A break to the downside may find support around 1915.

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