TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 21, 2022
Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/19/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-19-2022/
AUDUSD – End of the downtrend?
As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bullish and has reversed around 0.7460.
AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have crossed bullish and price is around the previous swing high, all suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. AUDUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move higher.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7345, 0.7405, 0.7460, 0.7485 and 0.7530.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.
EURGBP – End of the downtrend? Possible bullish move?
Price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.
EURGBP has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The retrace move has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are slightly bullish, all suggesting that the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price action has formed a bullish diagonal support area. EURGBP continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, signalling that price could still become bearish and swing lower.
Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8260, 0.8330, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8435.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1630 UTC today.
EURUSD – End of the downtrend? Potential indecision?
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD broke above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.
Price was down-trending but has struggled to swing lower – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the weakening downside – they have crossed bullish. EURUSD may become indecisive.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0765, 1.0865, 1.0920 and 1.0935.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0920 and 1.0935.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.
GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside move?
GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.
Price continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become bullish and swing higher on the 1 hour time-frame.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3040, 1.3075, 1.3100, 1.3140 and 1.3160.
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1630 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC.
USDCAD – Potential downtrend?
As suggested in our last analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.
The USDCAD has swung below the recent consolidation area, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages have crossed bearish – confirming the potential downside.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2530, 1.2540, 1.2565 and 1.2575. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.2445 and 1.2410.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.
USDCHF – Up-trending
Price has continues to be bullish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.
The USDCHF is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.
Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9460, 0.9410, 0.9370 and 0.9355. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.9525 and around the diagonal resistance area.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.
USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the resistance area of the previous bullish channel.
The USDJPY is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis. Price has been very bullish for a number of weeks and is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bullish and steady though, signalling that the USDJPY could swing higher.
Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal level and around the horizontal levels at 127.65 and 126.15. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 129.30.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.
XAUUSD – Indecision? Possible bearish move lower?
GOLD has reversed off the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our previous analysis.
Price was down-trending but the recent bearish move has broken key support levels, suggesting that the uptrend may be over. XAUUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, suggesting that price may move lower.
Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1960 and 1980. A bearish move may find support around 1940, 1915 and 1895.
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