TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 20, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/19/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-19-2022/

AUDUSD – End of the downtrend?

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price has formed a clear downtrend – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move. Price has retraced above the moving averages and a key resistance level, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are suggesting market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7345, 0.7405, 0.7460, 0.7485 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – End of the downtrend? Possible indecision?

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been bullish.

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The retrace move has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are moving sideways, all suggesting that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Price action has formed a tight bullish channel. The EURGBP continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, signalling that price could still become bearish and swing lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8260, 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8435.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend? Potential range.

Price has failed to swing lower, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The EURUSD was down-trending but is currently struggling to swing lower – the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 1.0765-1.0835 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages suggest market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0920 and 1.0935.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside move?

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price has been choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. GBPUSD is currently ranging between 1.2980 and 1.3040. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames and is around a key support area, signalling a potential move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3075, 1.3100 and 1.3140. Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecision. Ranging.

USDCAD reversed around 1.2640 and has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. USDCAD is currently ranging between 1.2575 and 1.2640. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2665. A break to the downside could find support around 1.2565, 1.2540 and 1.2530.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Up-trending

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The USDCHF is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend may continue – they are bullish and steady. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9410 and 0.9370. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.9525.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

USDJPY is clearly up-trending. Price could be entering a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening and USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the identified diagonal levels and around 126.15. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing highs at 129.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision?

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bearish.

GOLD was up-trending but the recent bearish move has swung below key support levels, signalling that the downtrend may now be over. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, suggesting that XAUUSD may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1915, 1960, 1980 and 1995.

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