TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 19, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/18/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-18-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

AUDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move and is testing the trend resistance area. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. AUDUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7405, 0.7460 and 0.7485. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 0.7345.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – End of the downtrend? Possible indecision?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

EURGBP has been clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung above the trend resistance area and has recently been moving sideways, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – the trend could becoming to an end. The moving averages suggest market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8260, 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8410.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and is now finding support around 1.0770.

Price is down-trending and is currently finding support around the previous swing low. EURUSD is struggling to swing lower, suggesting that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Price may start ranging between 1.0765 and 1.0835. The moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling that the trend may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0765, 1.0835, 1.0920, 1.0935 and 1.0950. If EURUSD closes below 1.0765, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. If price closes below the 1.2980 area, GBPUSD could attempt a bearish move lower. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3035, 1.3075 and 1.3100.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

USDCAD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2530, 1.2540, 1.2565, 1.2590, 1.2640 and 1.2665.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

USDCHF continues to uptrend. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9410, 0.9370 and 0.9355.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDJPY has been bullish.

Price continues to clearly uptrend and swing higher. USDJPY has broken above the recent bullish channel, indicating the strength of the trend. Price is starting to look overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bullish and steady.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the support and resistance areas of the recent bullish channel, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 126.15, 125.20, 124.90 and 124.15. USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the current highs at 128.20.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Upside running out of steam?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

XAUUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1960, 1945 and 1940. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1980 and 1995.

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