TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 18, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/15/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-15-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around 0.7405 and has since been bearish.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. AUDUSD is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The AUDUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7405, 0.7460, 0.7485 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8260, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The EURGBP is testing the trend resistance area. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend may continue – they are bearish and steady. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8410. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.8260.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening. Downside momentum is starting to look a little choppy though and price is indecisive, suggesting that the downtrend could becoming to an end.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0840, 1.0920, 1.0935 and 1.0950. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0770.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2980, 1.3035, 1.3075, 1.3100, 1.3140 and 1.3160.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD reversed around 1.2590.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. USDCAD could start ranging between 1.2540 and 1.2665. If price closes above the 1.2665 area, USDCAD may start up-trending.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2530, 1.2540, 1.2565, 1.2590, 1.2630 and 1.2665.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. USDCHF is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current trend may continue on the 1 hour time-frame also.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9410, 0.9370 and 0.9355.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been bullish and has been finding resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

USDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price has formed a clear bullish channel and the USDJPY has been trending within the channel. Price is currently testing the channel resistance area, suggesting a potential retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 126.15, 125.20, 124.90 and 124.65. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and price is up-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1980, 1960, 1945 and 1940.

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