TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 15, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/14/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-14-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

AUDUSD was ranging and looking indecisive but recent price action has been bearish. Price has closed below the range support area, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish. AUDUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become bullish and swing higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7405, 0.7460, 0.7485 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bearish.

EURGBP is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently finding support around 0.8260. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the 1 hour bearish direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8410. EURGBP could continue to find support around 0.8260 and even retrace off this area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and has just formed a lower swing low. EURUSD is starting to look choppy and indecisive, signalling that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. Price may start ranging between 1.0770 and 1.0920.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0840, 1.0920, 1.0935 and 1.0950.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision? Potential uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GBPUSD has been finding support around the longer-term moving average.

Price action has formed a large bullish move and a higher swing high, signalling the start of a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside. Price is looking a little choppy though, suggesting possible indecision.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050 and 1.2980. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3100, 1.3140, 1.3160 and 1.3170.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2465, 1.2530, 1.2565, 1.2590, 1.2630 and 1.2665.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bullish.

The USDCHF has swung higher and is now showing a clear uptrend. Price is currently hitting new recent highs. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and widening. The USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9370 and 0.9355.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. USDJPY is currently forming a swing higher. Price is moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 126.15, 125.70, 125.20, 124.90 and 124.65. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the longer-term moving average.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. XAUUSD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1965, 1945 and 1940. A bullish move could find resistance around 1975 and 1980.

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