TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 14, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/13/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-13-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around 0.7405 and is ranging.

Price was showing signs of a potential downtrend but is not indecisive. The AUDUSD is ranging between 0.7405-0.7485 and is forming a horizontal channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move. This could be caused by the major USD news today.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.7530 and 0.7650.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Further downside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has moved lower, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. EURGBP is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8375 and 0.8410.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD – Potential range?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The EURUSD has swung above the moving averages and is nearing the most recent swing high at 1.0930, suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could be over. Price is starting to look indecisive and may start ranging between 1.0815 and 1.0935. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 1.0950, 1.1030 and 1.1075.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference and US retail sales figures at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD – Potential uptrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

The GBPUSD is above the recent consolidation area and is forming a higher swing high, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bullish, confirming the potential upside. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to an upside move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3095, 1.3050 and 1.2980. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3160, 1.3170 and 1.3220.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Potential downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD reversed around the previous trend support area and has been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price was up-trending but is now looking bearish. Price action is forming a lower swing low and the moving averages are crossing bearish, suggesting a potential downtrend.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2565, 1.2590 and 1.2665. A bearish move could find support around 1.2530 and 1.2465.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Market indecision. Potential bullish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move on the 1 hour.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9205, 0.9245, 0.9280, 0.9290, 0.9340 and 0.9370. If price closes above 0.9370, the USDCHF could form a large bullish move higher.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung below the trend support area and price action may be forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern, both suggesting that the uptrend may becoming to an end. USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around any of the horizontal levels at 124.90, 124.65, 124.15, 123.60, 123.10 and 122.95. A bullish move may be rejected or become bearish around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 125.70 and 126.15.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bullish.

GOLD is above a recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. XAUUSD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1965, 1945 and 1940. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1980.

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