TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 12, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/11/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-11-2022/

AUDUSD – Further downside? Potential bullish move higher?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish.

Price is currently down-trending – price action has been bearish and has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. The AUDUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7465 and 0.7530.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7375, 0.7415, 0.7465 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Market indecision. Potential bearish move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. The EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8300, 0.8310, 0.8375, 0.8410, 0.8440 and 0.8455.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend? Potential indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed around 1.0935 and has failed to swing lower.

The EURUSD was down-trending but is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price could start ranging between 1.0840 and 1.0935. If the EURUSD closes below the potential range support area, price could start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the potential range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.0950, 1.1030 and 1.1075.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Potential bullish move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 1.3055 and has since been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is finding support though and is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3055, 1.3095, 1.3160 and 1.3170. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the diagonal support area and around the recent lows at 1.2985.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is up-trending and could be starting to enter a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2620, 1.2565 and 1.2530.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Market indecision?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but recent price action has been bearish. USDCHF has swung below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, both suggesting that price is lacking trend momentum – USDCHF may become indecisive. The recent highs and horizontal resistance at 0.9370 has been tested many times. If price reaches this area again, the USDCHF may break higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9245, 0.9280, 0.9300 and 0.9370.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The USDJPY is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is currently finding resistance around the recent highs at 125.70.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 124.65, 124.15, 123.60, 123.10 and 122.95. The USDJPY may stall or reverse around the current highs at 125.70.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Potential upside?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price closed above the range resistance area and then found resistance around 1965, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

GOLD is above the recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1945, 1940 and 1915. A bullish move may continue to find resistance around 1965.

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