TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 11, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/08/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-08-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential bullish move? Further downside?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has found support off 0.7415.

AUDUSD was looking indecisive but has recently been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7375, 0.7415, 0.7465 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Market indecision?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

EURGBP was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. Price has swung above the moving averages and a recent swing high, signalling that the downtrend may now be over. The moving averages are suggesting market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. EURGBP continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, signalling potential downside on the 1 hour.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8300, 0.8310, 0.8350, 0.8410 and 0.8455.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – End of the downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and has just formed a lower swing low. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Recent price action swung above both moving averages though and the moving averages are not as bearish as they were, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.1030 and 1.1075. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.0840.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Continuation of down-trend? Potential bullish move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. GBPUSD is currently around recent lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though and is nearing key support, suggesting a potential bullish reversal on the 1 hour.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3040, 1.3055, 1.3095, 1.3160 and 1.3170. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2985.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, if price closes above the recent highs at 1.2620 and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2565, 1.2530 and 1.2465. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.2620.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Continuation of uptrend? Potential range?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has reversed around 0.9370, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

The USDCHF is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend may continue – they are bullish and steady. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a further upside move. Recent price action has been indecisive, signalling a potential range at 0.9310-0.9370.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9310, 0.9280 and 0.9245. The USDCHF may reverse around the potential range resistance area at 0.9370.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames also.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 124.65, 124.15, 123.10, 122.95 and 122.35.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area, as suggested in our previous analysis.

XAUUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price has been ranging between 1915 and 1945. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1965. A break to the downside may find support around 1895.

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