TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 08, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/07/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-07-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways.

Price continues to look indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The AUDUSD is back within a previous horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7560, suggesting that price may consolidate within the channel again.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7365, 0.7415, 0.7465, 0.7530 and 0.7650.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price action has been a little choppy but is overall bearish. Price has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling that the EURGBP is down-trending. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8350, 0.8370 and 0.8410. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 0.8320 and 0.8300.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Down-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed off 1.0935 and has since been bearish.

The EURUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0875, 1.0935, 1.0950 and 1.1030.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Continuation of down-trend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The GBPUSD has closed below the range support area, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3055, 1.3095, 1.3160 and 1.3170.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Potential uptrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price action is forming a large bullish move and a swing high above recent highs and resistance levels, all suggesting the start of a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2580, 1.2530 and 1.2465. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.2620 and 1.2635.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Continuation of uptrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9320, 0.9280 and 0.9245. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.9370.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Possible indecision or bearish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area.

USDJPY is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently testing recent highs and finding resistance. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting market indecision – USDJPY may start moving sideways.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 123.10, 122.95, 122.35 and 121.35. A bullish move may find resistance around 124.15 and around 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

XAUUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging between 1915 and 1945 and is currently around the range support area. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1965. A break to the downside of the range may find support around 1905 and 1895.

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