TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 07, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/06/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-06-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price is currently finding support around 0.7465.

AUDUSD was showing signs of continuing the uptrend but recent price action has been bearish. Price has swung below the moving averages and below a key support area, suggesting that the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are moving sideways and AUDUSD has re-entered the recent consolidation area at 0.7465-0.7530, all suggesting potential market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7365, 0.7415, 0.7465, 0.7530 and 0.7650.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision? Potential downside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

EURGBP has been moving sideways and is starting to look indecisive. Price is currently moving within a tight range at 0.8330-0.8350. The moving averages are bearish and steady though and EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting a potential bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8300, 0.8320, 0.8350, 0.8370, 0.8410 and 0.8450.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, EURUSD found resistance around 1.0940 and the shorter-term moving average.

Price action has formed a large bearish and is now in a retrace move. Price is below the moving averages and below a recent large consolidation area, signalling that EURUSD could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.0965 and 1.1030. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0885.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Ranging

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been finding support around the range support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.3055 and 1.3175. GBPUSD is currently around the range support area. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move higher. The 1 hour moving averages are currently bearish though, signalling a bearish breakout.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Potential uptrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price reversed around the moving averages.

The USDCAD was down-trending. Recent price action has been bullish though and is currently forming a swing higher, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages are still tight and crossing frequently, suggesting market indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2530, 1.2465 and 1.2410. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.2580 and 1.2620.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Continuation of uptrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

The USDCHF has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential trend – they are bullish and widening. Price is currently in a retrace move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9280 and 0.9245. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.9340, 0.9370 and 0.9430.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the USDJPY has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average.

Price is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. USDJPY is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 123.10, 122.95, 122.35 and 121.35. A bullish move could find resistance around 124.15 and 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. XAUUSD is ranging between 1915 and 1945 and is currently around the range support area. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1965. A break to the downside of the range may find support around 1905 and 1895.

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