TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 06, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/05/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-05-2022/

AUDUSD – Continuation of uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue. The AUDUSD is currently above key resistance on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price may continue to be bullish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7530, 0.7465, 0.7415 and 0.7365. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7650.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential further downside? Potential retrace move first?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price has been bearish and has reversed the recent large bullish move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Price could form a retrace move before swinging lower. The EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8410 and 0.8450. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8320 and 0.8300.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

The EURUSD was indecisive but is now looking bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. EURUSD may retrace first, before attempting to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0940, 1.0950, 1.0965 and 1.1030.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Ranging. Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the range resistance area and is now finding support around the rang support area, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is ranging between 1.3055-1.3175. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossed frequently. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A bullish move could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3220 and 1.3285.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDCAD – Continuation of downtrend? Potential indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price action has formed a swing lower, signalling that the USDCAD may be down-trending again. The moving averages continue to signal market indecision though – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2530, 1.2580 and 1.2620. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2465 and 1.2410.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDCHF – Potential uptrend

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and is also above the recent range, all suggesting an uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the potential upside. USDCHF is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price could uptrend on the 1 hour time-frame also.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9325, 0.9280 and 0.9245. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.9370 and 0.9430.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has been bullish.

USDJPY has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and is also above the recent range, all signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the bullish momentum. USDJPY is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price could uptrend on the 1 hour time-frame also.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 123.10, 122.95, 122.35 and 121.35. A bullish move may find resistance around 124.15 and 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

XAUUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. XAUUSD was ranging between 1895 and 1965 but has now formed a tighter range at 1915 and 1945. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1965. Trading opportunities could also exist around the horizontal level at 1905.

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