TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 05, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/04/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-04-2022/

AUDUSD – Continuation of uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price closed above the horizontal channel and has since been bullish.

AUDUSD is above the recent consolidation area. Price was up-trending before ranging – AUDUSD could now start up-trending again. The moving averages are becoming bullish – confirming the potential upside. Price has also closed above a key resistance area on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7530, 0.7465, 0.7415 and 0.7365.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential further downside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

EURGBP has almost reversed the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and is below a key consolidation area, suggesting that EURGBP may downtrend on the 1 hour time-frame also.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8410, 0.8450 and 0.8510. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8325 and 0.8300.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding support around 1.0965.

Price has been bearish but is overall looking indecisive. The moving averages are currently bearish and widening, signalling that the bearish direction could continue. EURUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames. If price closes below the support area at 1.0935, EURUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1030, 1.1075 and 1.1130.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Ranging. Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive. GBPUSD is now ranging between 1.3060 and 1.3170. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3220 and 1.3285. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – Market indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD was down-trending but is now indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are very tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.2465 and 1.2530. If the USDCAD closes below 1.2445, price could start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2445, 1.2580 and 1.2620.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

The USDCHF was showing potential downside direction but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action has formed a very tight range at 0.9245-0.9280.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9205. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9325, 0.9370 and 0.9430.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – Market indecision. Potential bullish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between 122.35-122.95. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 123.10, 124.15 and 124.65. A break to the downside could find support around 121.35 and 120.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. XAUUSD is ranging between 1895 and 1965. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 2005. Trading opportunities could also exist around the horizontal levels at 1905, 1915 and 1950.

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