TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 04, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/04/01/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-01-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Price testing key resistance area.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been reversing around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The AUDUSD has been moving within a clear horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7530. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is testing a major resistance higher time-frame resistance area, signalling a potential strong move higher or lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7415 and 0.7365.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The RBA will announce the official cash rate and release a rate statement at 0430 UTC.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Possible bearish move lower?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding support around 0.8410 and the 50.0% Fib level, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. EURGBP is below the moving averages and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that price could struggle to swing higher. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and is below a major consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend on the 1 hour.

Buying opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8410, 0.8370 and 0.8325. A bullish move could be rejected and become bearish around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8450 and 0.8510.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0905 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD has become indecisive again and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have crossed – confirming the current indecision. Higher time-frames are providing mixed signals, adding to the indecision and lack of trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1030, 1.1075, 1.1130 and 1.1175.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3000, 1.3060, 1.3170, 1.3220 and 1.3290.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0905 UTC today.

USDCAD – End of the downtrend? Market indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. USDCAD is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames. If price closes below the lows at 1.2445, USDCAD may start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal trend resistance and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2445, 1.2465, 1.2555, 1.2580 and 1.2620.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is potentially down-trending again and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish – confirming the potential downside. USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9260, 0.9325, 0.9370 and 0.9430. A bearish move could stall or find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.9205.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been moving sideways.

USDJPY was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. Price is currently in a retrace move after forming a large bullish move but there is little sign of bullish momentum. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 120.65, 121.35, 122.35, 123.10, 124.15 and 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off 1950, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. XAUUSD is ranging between 1895 and 1965. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 2005. Trading opportunities could also exist around the horizontal levels at 1905 and 1950.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/

Hits: 17