TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 01, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/31/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-31-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Price testing key resistance area. NFP break-out?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area.

AUDUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. Price has been moving sideways and has been moving within a clear horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7530. The major USD news today could cause a breakout. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. AUDUSD is testing a key higher time-frame resistance area, signalling a potential strong move higher or lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.7415, 0.7365 and 0.7260.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Possible bearish move lower?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been in a bearish retrace move, as suggested in our previous analysis.

EURGBP has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – price is up-trending. The current retrace move is significant in size and has swung below both moving averages, suggesting that EURGBP may struggle to swing higher – the uptrend may becoming to an end. Price is clearly down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8410, 0.8370 and 0.8320. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8450 and 0.8510.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of potential upside but is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways – confirming the market indecision. Higher time-frames are providing mixed signals.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1030, 1.1040, 1.1060, 1.1075, 1.1130 and 1.1175.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, GBPUSD has been moving sideways.

Price has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3000, 1.3060, 1.3115, 1.3170, 1.3220 and 1.3290.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – End of the downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed of 1.2465, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCAD has been down-trending and is starting to look indecisive. As mentioned in previous analysis, the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the weakening selling momentum – they are tight and moving sideways. The major USD news could cause price to swing lower though. If USDCAD closes below 1.2445, price could start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2445, 1.2465, 1.2555, 1.2580, 1.2620 and 1.2690.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The USDCHF has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting a potential downtrend. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9250, 0.9260, 0.9325 and 0.9370. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.9205.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – Market indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY reversed around 121.35, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is starting to look indecisive – the price action is sideways and the moving averages are moving sideways also. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 118.90, 120.65, 121.35, 122.35, 123.10, 124.15 and 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, XAUUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Gold is ranging between 1895 and 1965. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 2005. Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal levels at 1905 and 1950.

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