TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 31, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/30/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-30-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Price testing key resistance area.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area.

Price has been moving sideways and continues to be indecisive. The AUDUSD is moving within a clear horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7530. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish break lower or a strong move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7415, 0.7365 and 0.7260. If AUDUSD breaks above the channel resistance area, price could start up-trending again.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8450 and has swung higher, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction could continue. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bearish move. Price is looking a little over-extended, signalling that a bearish retrace move could be due.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8450, 0.8410 and 0.8370.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Potential uptrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above 1.1130 and has since been bullish.

The EURUSD is above the recent consolidation area and is forming a higher swing high, all suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1130, 1.1075, 1.1075, 1.1060 and 1.1040.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Market indecision? Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The GBPUSD was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish and has formed a higher swing high. Price has also swung above the recent trend resistance and the moving averages, confirming the potential upside. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3000, 1.3060, 1.3160, 1.3175, 1.3220 and 1.3285.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – End of the downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD found resistance around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Price has managed to form a lower swing low, continuing the downtrend. Bearish momentum continues to look weak though – price is above the moving averages, the moving averages are moving sideways and the recent swing low was only slightly lower than the previous swing low – the uptrend may becoming to an end. If USDCAD closes below 1.2445, price may attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2445, 1.2465, 1.2555, 1.2580, 1.2620 and 1.2690.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish.

Price has formed a swing below the recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages have crossed bearish, confirming the potential downside. USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9255, 0.9260, 0.9325 and 0.9370.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price reversed around the moving averages and has been bearish.

USDJPY was up-trending but has recently been bearish. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish. Price is clearly up-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace move, suggesting that USDJPY may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 122.35, 123.10, 1.2415 and 124.65. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 121.35, 120.65 and 118.90.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US Price Index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price is ranging between 1895 and 1965. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if XAUUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 2005. Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal levels at 1905 and 1950.

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