TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 30, 2022


AUDUSD – Market indecision. Price testing key resistance area.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range support area.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and move within a tight horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7530. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish break lower or a strong move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7415, 0.7365 and 0.7260. If price breaks above the channel resistance area, AUDUSD could start up-trending again.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential trend. Possible retrace move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend may continue – they are bullish and widening. Price is looking a little over-extended, signalling a potential retrace move. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the 1 hour uptrend may soon become a downtrend.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8450, 0.8410 and 0.8325.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bullish.

Price was showing signs of bearish momentum but EURUSD is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Higher time-frames are giving mixed signals, providing no clear indication of future price direction. If EURUSD closes above the recent highs at 1.1130, price could form a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1030, 1.1040, 1.1060 and 1.1130.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, GBPUSD reversed around the trend resistance area and around the longer-term moving average.

Price is looking choppy but is currently down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling a potential bullish move.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3160, 1.3220 and 1.3285. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3060 and 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

USDCAD – End of the downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 1.2465, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDCAD is down-trending but is struggling to swing lower – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the weakening downside momentum – they are tightening. If price closes below the current support at 1.2465, the USDCAD could form a swing lower and the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, if price closes below 1.2465, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2580, 1.2620 and 1.2690. USDCAD could stall or reverse off 1.2465.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

USDCHF – Indecision

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price reversed around 0.9370.

The USDCHF is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9255, 0.9260, 0.9325, 0.9370 and 0.9430.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

USDJPY – End of the uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY found support around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price has since been bearish though. The USDJPY has been up-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. Price has swung below the moving averages and the trend support area, suggesting that price could struggle to swing higher – the uptrend could becoming to an end. USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 121.35, 120.65 and 118.90. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 122.35, 123.10 and 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, GOLD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. XAUUSD has formed a range at 1895-1965.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1915, 1950 and 2005.

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