TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 29, 2022


AUDUSD – Market indecision. Price testing key resistance area.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been up-trending. Price is currently looking indecisive though and has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.7465-0.7530. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. AUDUSD is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish break lower or a strong move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7415, 0.7365 and 0.7260.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Possible upside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP was looking indecisive but has recently been bullish. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they are bullish and widening. Price continues to look bearish on higher time-frames, signalling a potential swing lower.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8325 and 0.8300. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8410 and 0.8450.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – EURUSD is down-trending. Price is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1040, 1.1060 and 1.1130. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0965, 1.0950, 1.0935 and 1.0900.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Possible upside move?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has formed a downtrend – price action has formed lower swing highs and swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames and is reaching potential support, suggesting that price could become bullish.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3110, 1.3120, 1.3560, 1.3220 and 1.3285. A bearish move could find support around the lows and psychological level at 1.3000.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – End of the downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been down-trending. Recent price action has been a bit sideways and has formed a strong retrace move, suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are still bearish though and bearish price structure remains.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2580, 1.2620 and 1.2690. A bearish move may become bullish around the recent swing low at 1.2465.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Indecision. Potential bullish move.

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been indecisive. Price is looking choppy. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been tight. USDCHF is looking bullish on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move on the 1 hour.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9260, 0.9300, 0.9325, 0.9370 and 0.9430.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Potential retrace move lower?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. USDJPY is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a strong retrace move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 122.35, 121.35 and 120.65. A bullish move may find resistance around 124.65.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

A US JOLTS Job Openings figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Market indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is indecisive and has been moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. If GOLD closes below the recent lows at 1905, XAUUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1905, 1915, 1950, 1965 and 2005.

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