TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – April, May & June 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/01/04/triumphfx-forex-analysis-usd-pairs-january-february-march-2022/

AUDUSD – Daily Chart – Market Indecision?

AUDUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous USD analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and then formed a swing lower.

AUDUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have tightened and are moving sideways. Price is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6990, 0.7280, 0.7400, 0.8530, 0.7600 and 0.7850.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

EURUSD – Daily Chart – Down-trending

EURUSD Daily Chart

The EURUSD has been bearish and has been swinging lower, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The EURUSD is now in a retrace move. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1140, 1.1465, 1.1525, 1.1685 and 1.1890. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0865.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart – Clear uptrend. Possible upside?

GBPUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our last USD analysis, price reversed off the trend resistance area and swung lower.

The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. Price is currently in a retrace move. The GBPUSD is up-trending on the weekly time-frame and is currently finding support around the psychological level of 1.3000, signalling that price could become bullish.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3390, 1.3615, 1.3715, 1.3815, 1.3855 and 1.3960. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the 1.3000 area.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

USDCAD – Daily Chart – Indecision

USDCAD Daily Chart

USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price has been choppy and indecisive. Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, suggesting potential breakout trades. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and resistance levels, around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2040, 1.2325, 1.2495, 1.2890 and 1.2935. Breakout trades could exist when USDCAD closes out of the consolidation area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

USDCHF – Daily Chart – Uptrend? Possible market indecision?

USDCHF Daily Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDCHF was indecisive for awhile and was ranging between 0.9090 and 0.9355. Recent price action has been bullish again though – price seems to be up-trending again. The weekly time-frame is showing market indecision though and the daily moving averages are tight and moving sideways, all suggesting that the USDCHF could become indecisive again.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area, and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9160, 0.9090, 0.9035 and 0.8945. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9355 and 0.9440.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

USDJPY – Daily Chart – Clearly up-trending. Possible retrace move?

USDJPY Daily Chart

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a new swing high. The USDJPY is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that price could be due a bearish retrace move. The daily moving averages continue to be bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 116.20, 115.50, 113.50 and 112.80. Price could find resistance and reverse around the current highs at 112.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

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