TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – GBP Pairs – April, May & June 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/12/30/triumphfx-forex-analysis-gbp-pairs-january-february-march-2022/

EURGBP – Daily Chart – Down-trending

EURGBP – Daily Chart

Price has continued to be slightly bearish and also indecisive, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

EURGBP is moving in a general downward direction but has had multiple stalls and periods of indecision along the way. Price is now within another range at 0.8230-0.8470. The daily moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. On higher time-frames, EURGBP has closed below a key support area, suggesting a potential bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, and around the horizontal levels at 0.8470, 0.8590, 0.8660 and 0.8720. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.8310 and around the potential range support at 0.8230.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

GBPCHF – Daily Chart – Down-trending

GBPCHF – Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the GBPCHF has been bearish.

Price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages confirm the downtrend – they are bearish and steady. The GBPCHF has also been down-trending on higher time-frames but is starting to look indecisive, suggesting potential indecision on the daily chart. Price may start ranging between 1.2100 and 1.2600.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2590, 1.2730, 1.2825 and 1.3030. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the potential range support at 1.2100.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

GBPJPY – Daily Chart – Potential uptrend?

GBPJPY – Daily Chart

GBPJPY reversed around the range resistance area, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price was indecisive and had been ranging. Recent price action has been bullish though and has swung above the consolidation resistance area, suggesting a potential uptrend. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bullish. GBPJPY is also up-trending on the weekly time-frame, adding confidence to the potential upside move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 158.00, 157.40, 153.40, 151.25 and 149.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart – Clear Downtrend. Possible upside?

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last GBP analysis, price reversed off the trend resistance area and swung lower.

The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. Price is currently in a retrace move. The GBPUSD is up-trending on the weekly time-frame and is currently finding support around the psychological level of 1.3000, signalling that price could become bullish.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3390, 1.3615, 1.3715, 1.3815, 1.3855 and 1.3960. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the 1.3000 area.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

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