TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – EUR Pairs – April, May & June 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/10/14/triumphfx-forex-analysis-eur-pairs-october-november-december-2021/

EURCHF – Daily Chart – Clear downtrend

EURCHF – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last EUR chart analysis, price reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and has been bearish.

EURCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price has recently formed another swing lower and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. EURCHF is around key support on the monthly time-frame, signalling that price could become bullish.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0340, 1.0500, 1.0600, 1.0700 and 1.0930. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.0000.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

EURGBP – Daily Chart – Down-trending

EURGBP – Daily Chart

Price has continued to be slightly bearish and also indecisive, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

EURGBP is moving in a general downward direction but has had multiple stalls and periods of indecision along the way. Price is now within another range at 0.8230-0.8470. The daily moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. On higher time-frames, EURGBP has closed below a key support area, suggesting a potential bearish move lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, and around the horizontal levels at 0.8470, 0.8590, 0.8660 and 0.8720. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 0.8310 and around the potential range support at 0.8230.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

EURJPY – Daily Chart – Indecision. Possible bearish move?

EURJPY – Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the EURJPY has been moving sideways.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and a diagonal resistance area, suggesting that EURJPY could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 125.00, 127.45, 128.40, 132.40, 133.45 and 133.95.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

EURUSD – Daily Chart – Down-trending

EURUSD – Daily Chart

The EURUSD has been bearish and has been swinging lower, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The EURUSD is now in a retrace move. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1140, 1.1465, 1.1525, 1.1685 and 1.1890. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0865.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

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