TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – April, May & June 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/12/22/triumphfx-forex-analysis-aud-pairs-january-february-march-2022/

AUDCAD – Daily Chart – Potential uptrend? Possible indecision?

AUDCAD Daily Chart

The AUDCAD has been bullish.

Price action has formed a higher swing high and has broken key resistance levels, signalling a potential uptrend. Price is currently in a retrace move. AUDCAD has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting potential market indecision. Price is also looking a little indecisive on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9100, 0.8970 and 0.8915. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9530, 0.9720 and 0.9900.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

AUDCHF – Daily Chart – Possible uptrend?

AUDCHF Daily Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price was indecisive and moved sideways.

Recent price action has been bullish though and is forming a swing higher, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages signal market indecision though – they are tightening. The AUDCHF is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support), around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6675, 0.6500 and 0.6400. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.6900, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7150 and 0.7225.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

AUDJPY – Daily Chart – Uptrend

AUDJPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY has been bullish.

Price was looking indecisive but is now bullish. AUDJPY has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and has swung above the consolidation resistance area, all suggesting that the upside direction could continue. The daily moving averages are bullish and steady, adding confidence to the continued upside direction. AUDJPY is also up-trending and above moving averages on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 86.00, 85.30, 84.00 and 80.50.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

AUDUSD – Daily Chart – Market indecision?

AUDUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous AUD analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and then formed a swing lower.

AUDUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have tightened and are moving sideways. Price is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6990, 0.7280, 0.7400, 0.8530, 0.7600 and 0.7850.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

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