TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 11, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/10/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-10-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision? Possible bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price continues to be indecisive but show signs of potential upside – AUDUSD is above the moving averages and price is clearly up-trending on higher time-frames. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7295, 0.9260, 0.7245 and 0.7230. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.7365 and 0.7425.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision? Possible retrace move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around 0.8370 and around the shorter term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price has formed a large bullish move, suggesting the start of a potential uptrend. EURGBP is currently moving sideways though and has formed a range at 0.8380-0.8420. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting a potential move higher. Price looks like it could enter a retrace move though.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the range support area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8355 and 0.8330. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.8420.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price became bearish off the 1.1090 area.

The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The retrace move is large and has formed areas of support, signalling that price may struggle to swing lower. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. EURUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1100, 1.1130 and 1.1230. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the diagonal support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.0945 and 1.0830.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel. The GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3090, 1.3135, 1.3195 and 1.3275.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of potential upside but is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have crossed and are tight. USDCAD is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2655, 1.2690, 1.2745, 1.2755 and 1.2895.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – Uptrend? Possible range?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average and has swung higher.

Price is potentially up-trending but also potentially forming a range at 0.9250-0.9305. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling the possible swing higher. USDCHF continues to move within a large daily horizontal channel at 0.9090-0.9355. 

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9250 and 0.9230. Price could reverse around the range resistance area at 0.9305.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – Uptrend. Potential retrace move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDJPY has broken above the recent consolidation area and is forming a large bullish move, suggesting an uptrend. The bullish move is looking a little over-extended, signalling a potential retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady and the USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous consolidation resistance at 115.80.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

A US preliminary consumer sentiment figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been finding support around the trend support area.

XAUUSD is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening – price could struggle to swing higher. GOLD is currently looking a little indecisive and could start ranging between 1973 and 2005.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1973, 1947 and 1918. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 2005 and 2069.

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