TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 10, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/09/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-9-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision? Possible bullish move?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish.

AUDUSD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that AUDUSD could become bullish.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7260, 0.7245 and 0.7230. A bullish move could find resistance around the previous trend support area and around the recent highs at 0.7425.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2215 UTC.

EURGBP – Mixed signals

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been very bullish.

EURGBP has formed a large bullish move and swing higher, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside. Price is testing a daily resistance area though and EURGBP continues to be below key consolidation support on higher time-frames – EURGBP is providing mixed signals. Price may become indecisive, swing higher or become bearish… Not helpful, I know!

Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8295, 0.8330, 0.8355, 0.8370, 0.7380 and 0.8415.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official financing rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the EURUSD could struggle to swing lower – downside momentum may be weakening. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1090, 1.1130, 1.1230 and 1.1270. A bearish move could stall or reverse round the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0945 and 1.0830.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official financing rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC. US CPI figures will be released at the same time.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GBPUSD has entered a retrace move.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is above the moving averages though, signalling that GBPUSD may struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3275, 1.3415 and 1.3435. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3135 and 1.3090.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD – Potential bullish breakout?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the trend support area and longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDCAD continues to move within a large consolidation area. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows though, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the upside – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2770, 1.2745 and 1.2690. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.2895.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – Uptrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been finding support around the 0.382% Fib level.

The USDCHF continues to move within a large daily horizontal channel at 0.9090-0.9355. Recent price action has been bullish and has formed a higher swing high and higher swing low. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, and around the horizontal levels at 0.9250 and 0.9230. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9285 and 0.9300.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – Possible uptrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY reversed around 115.80 and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price was consolidating between 114.60 and 115.80 but the USDJPY has swung above the range resistance area. Price action has formed a higher swing high, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they are bullish and widening. The USDJPY has formed an ascending triangle on the daily time-frame, suggesting a potential bearish move to the triangle support area before moving higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 115.80 and 115.25. A bullish move could find resistance around 116.15.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Potential bearish move?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the trend support area and horizontal level at 1974.

GOLD is clearly up-trending and is in a retrace move. The moving averages are starting to tight and price has swung below the moving averages, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. XAUUSD continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1974, 1947, 1918 and 1884. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 2002 and 2069.

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