TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 08, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/04/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-04-2022/

AUDUSD – Continuation of uptrend?

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been retracing.

AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price continues to be above the recent consolidation area and has formed clear higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. The moving averages are tightening though and AUDUSD has swung below the trend support area, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – price could struggle to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7245, 0.7230 and 0.7155. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the recent swing high at 0.7425.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2215 UTC today.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend?

Price has been finding resistance around 0.8295, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price continues to be below a key higher time-frame support at 0.8300, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. The moving averages are tightening and are beginning to move sideways, signalling that EURGBP may struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8295, 0.8305, 0.8325, 0.8355 and 0.8375. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 0.8210.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Market indecision?

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. EURUSD is currently moving sideways and has formed a tight range at 1.0830-1.0895. A break to the upside of the range could lead to a retrace move. A break to the downside could lead to a swing lower. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0895, 1.1065 and 1.1130. An attempt to swing lower could find support around the range support area at 1.0830.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

GBPUSD has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending, just like other ***USD pairs. GBPUSD is currently finding support and could be closing a bullish rejection candle, signalling the start of a potential retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3275 and 1.3415.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Market indecision. Potential upside?

As suggested in our last analysis, price reversed around the moving averages.

The USDCAD has been indecisive for over 5 weeks and is moving within a higher time-frame consolidation at 1.2650-1.2875. Price has been choppy. Price action has formed a higher swing high and higher swing low, suggesting potential upside. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2810, 1.2770, 1.2745, 1.2690 and 1.2655. A bullish move could find resistance around the consolidation resistance area at 1.2875.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Indecision

Price has been bullish.

The USDCHF has formed a large bullish move but continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price is moving within a large daily horizontal channel at 0.9090-0.9355. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9165, 0.9230 and 0.9285.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision. Potential upside?

The USDJPY has been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction – price action has been choppy and sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways for over 3 weeks – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 114.60, 114.65, 115.25 and 115.80.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Potential bearish move?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and around 1974 and has since been bullish.

Price is up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. XAUUSD is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. GOLD is nearing all-time highs around 2035, suggesting potential resistance – price may retrace or even reverse.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 2002, 1974, 1947, 1918 and 1884. A bullish move may become bearish as price nears or hits the 2035 area.

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