TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 04, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/03/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-03-2022/

AUDUSD – Continuation of uptrend?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

AUDUSD is above the recent consolidation area and is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is moving within a bullish channel and is currently forming a new swing high. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7285, 0.7245 and 0.7230. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP was indecisive but is now down-trending – price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the downside direction may continue – they are bearish and widening. EURGBP has broken a key support area on higher time-frames, signalling that the start of a long-term downtrend.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the trend resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8295, 0.8305, 0.8325 and 0.8355.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish and has swung lower.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggest that the downtrend could continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1065, 1.1130 and 1.1230.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Euro, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading into the EU.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

GBPUSD – Indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD continues to move sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3275-1.3435. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3490 and 1.3540.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall. The war in Ukraine is weighing on the Pound, due to the economic impact of war in Europe and the concern of war spreading closer to the UK.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

USDCAD – Potential end of downtrend? Market indecision?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The USDCAD has been down-trending and has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The current retrace move has been strong and has swung above the moving averages, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price is also back within the consolidation area at 1.2655-1.2785. The USDCAD could become indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2605, 1.2655, 1.2740, 1.2810 and 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

USDCHF – Indecision

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has become indecisive.

The USDCHF is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price may start ranging between 0.9170 and 0.9230.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9150. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9285.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

USDJPY – Market indecision. Potential bullish move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off 115.80 and then found support around 115.25 and the moving averages, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDJPY is indecisive and is consolidating between 114.40 and 115.80. Price action is forming a potential ascending triangle, suggesting a possible bullish breakout move. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to an upside move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 115.25, 114.70 and 114.60. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the consolidation resistance area at 115.80.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current war in Ukraine.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing volatile moves across all markets.

XAUUSD – Indecision. Potential move higher?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, GOLD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending but is struggling to swing higher. Recent price action has been sideways, signalling market indecision. XAUUSD may start ranging between 1919 and 1947.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1974. A break to the downside may find support around 1884.

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