TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 02, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/03/01/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-march-01-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Possible break higher?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has reversed around the consolidation resistance area.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and move within a large consolidation at 0.7090-0.7285. Price has broken the diagonal support area identified in yesterday’s analysis, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening. Price action continues to hold the higher swing highs and higher swing lows though and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could still break above the consolidation.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7245 and 0.7230. AUDUSD could continue to find resistance around the consolidation resistance area at 0.7285.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential move off or through key support?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish off the diagonal support area and is currently finding resistance around the moving averages, as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows but is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing and are moving sideways. Price continues to be around a major support area on higher time-frames (0.8300), suggesting a potential bearish breakout move lower or a strong bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8305, 0.8325, 0.8370, 0.8380, 0.8400 and 0.8410.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has swung lower.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downside direction could continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1230 and 1.1270.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Potential indecision?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has reversed off 1.3435 and the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price was potentially ranging between 1.3320 and 1.3435 but has been bearish. GBPUSD is potentially down-trending again but is currently finding support around the recent lows at 1.3275 – price is struggling to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and the GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside momentum may continue. Price may become indecisive though.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3320, 1.3435, 1.3490 and 1.3540. GBPUSD may reverse off the recent lows at 1.3275.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC.

USDCAD – Market indecision

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average.

The USDCAD was showing signs of potential bearish momentum but price has failed to swing lower. Price is now looking indecisive and is within a large consolidation area at 1.2645-1.2875. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The USDCAD is also indecision on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2645, 1.2655, 1.2700, 1.2810 and 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC. The BOC will release a rate statement and announce the official overnight rate at the same time.

USDCHF – Indecision

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The USDCHF is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price is choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. On higher time-frames, the USDCHF is clearly ranging between 0.9090 and 0.9355.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9215, 0.9225 and 0.9230. If price moves below 0.9150, USDCHF may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive, just like other USD pairs. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 114.40, 114.60, 114.70, 115.25, 115.75, 115.80 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US Fed Chair testimony at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – Indecision. Potential move higher?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

XAUUSD was in a temporary range but is now bullish again. Price is up-trending on all key time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. GOLD may struggle to pass the recent highs at 1974.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1919, 1884 and 1879. Price may be rejected or reverse around or near the recent highs at 1970.

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