TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 01, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/28/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-28-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision. Possible break higher?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The AUDUSD has been choppy and indecisive for about 3 weeks. Price has been consolidating between 0.7090 and 0.7280. Price action has recently been bullish though and is currently testing the consolidation resistance area. AUDUSD has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages have crossed bullish – confirming the current upside. Price may attempt a bullish move out of the consolidation area.

Buying opportunities could exist around the potential trend support area, around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.7230 and 0.7155 and if AUDUSD closes above the consolidation area at 0.7280. Price may stall or reverse off the consolidation resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential move higher?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been finding support around 0.8345 and has also found resistance around 0.8380.

The EURGBP has formed a higher swing high and a higher swing low, signalling a potential uptrend. Price is currently in a retrace move. EURGBP is finding resistance and is struggling to swing higher, suggesting that there could not be sufficient buying momentum to uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to tighten and move sideways.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8345 and 0.8305. The EURGBP could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8380, 0.8400, 0.8410 and 0.8445.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Market indecision?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. EURUSD has failed to swing lower and is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening. The moving averages are still bearish though. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames. The EURUSD may start ranging.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1375 and 1.1390.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend? Potential range?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the GBPUSD has found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the horizontal resistance at 1.3435.

Price has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the GBPUSD could attempt to swing lower. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 1.3320-1.3435 – price could start ranging within the channel. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3275, 1.3320, 1.3435, 1.3490, 1.3540 and 1.3605.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD – Potential indecision? Possible downtrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

USDCAD was showing signs of a potential uptrend. Price has recently been bearish though and has swung to the support area of the previous consolidation. USDCAD is looking indecisive again. Price action has formed a lower swing high and lower swing low though, creating a trend resistance area. The moving averages are also bearish and widening. Will USDCAD break below the consolidation support area at 1.2645?

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2670, 1.2685 and 1.2700. An attempt to swing lower may fail around the consolidation support at 1.2645.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – Indecision

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

Just like USDCAD, the USDCHF was showing signs of a potential uptrend but has been strongly bearish. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. If USDCHF closes below the recent lows at 0.9150, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9150, 0.9195, 0.9215, 0.9225, 0.9230 and 0.9285. Selling opportunities may exist if USDCHF closes below 0.9150.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – Market indecision

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Just like other USD*** pairs, the USDJPY was showing potential bullish signs but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the USDJPY may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 114.40, 114.60, 115.20, 115.75, 115.80 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Indecision

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price was up-trending but has been moving sideways the last few trading days. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. XAUUSD has formed a horizontal channel at 1884-1919 and price is moving within the channel. GOLD is still up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1974. A break to the downside could find support around 1879, 1848, 1841 and 1823.

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