TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 28, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/25/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-25-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has been moving sideways.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. AUDUSD is also moving sideways on higher time-frames, providing no indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7090, 0.7095, 0.9155, 0.7230 and 0.7280.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The RBA will release a rate statement and announce the official cash rate at 0330 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential move higher?

EURGBP has been indecisive, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price broke above the consolidation area but has since reversed the bullish move and has re-entered the consolidation area. EURGBP continues to be indecisive but has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows, suggesting a potential bullish move. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. As mentioned in previous analysis, the EURGBP is around a key higher time-frame support at 0.8300, signalling potential upside or a strong bearish break lower.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8345 and 0.8305. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8380, 0.8400, 0.8410 and 0.8445.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the 61.8% Fib level.

EURUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The recent retrace move was strong, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – EURUSD could struggle to swing lower. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1290, 1.1355 and 1.1375. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels and recent swing lows at 1.1125 and 1.1110.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

Price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action has formed a large bearish move and has swung below key support areas, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. GBPUSD is now also down-trending on higher time-frames. Price is currently struggling to swing lower and has formed a support area, suggesting that that the downtrend may becoming to an end or a temporary pause.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3435, 1.3490 and 1.3540. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3320 and 1.3275.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Continuation of uptrend? Possible indecision?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bullish.

Price is still above the consolidation area and continues to form lower swing highs, suggesting that the USDCAD is still up-trending. The moving averages are bullish but are starting to move sideways, signalling market indecision. The recent retrace move was very large, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2645, 1.2670, 1.2685, 1.2700, 1.2810 and 1.2875.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Potential uptrend? Potential indecision?

The USDCHF reversed around 0.9225 and then reversed around 0.9285, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is up-trending and has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The USDCHF has failed to swing above the 0.9285 resistance area though and is now in another retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is starting to look indecisive though and could start ranging between 0.9230-0.9285.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.9230, 0.9225, 0.9215 and 0.9170. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance area at 0.9285.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision? Potential bullish move?

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDJPY is indecisive. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and lows though, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, adding confidence of a potential upside move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 115.25, 115.15 and 114.60. A bullish move could find resistance around 115.75, 115.80 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Indecision?

Price has been moving sideways.

GOLD has formed a clear uptrend and is currently in a retrace phase. Recent price action has been sideways, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price may range between 1884 and 1919. XAUUSD continues to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1823, 1841, 1848, 1879, 1884, 1919 and 1974.

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