TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 25, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/24/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-24-2022/

AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways and is currently finding resistance around the moving averages.

The AUDUSD is indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no indication of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7090, 0.7095, 0.7155, 0.7185, 0.7220 and 0.7280.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential break lower?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the 0.8300 area again and is currently finding resistance around the diagonal resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The EURGBP has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price action has formed a higher swing low, suggesting that downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. EURGBP has formed a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, signalling potential market indecision. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are moving sideways. As mentioned in previous analysis, the EURGBP is around a key higher time-frame support at 0.8300, suggesting potential upside or a strong bearish break lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the triangle (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8305, 0.8370, 0.8380, 0.8395, 0.8410 and 0.8445.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the EURUSD was bearish and has formed a swing lower.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The EURUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. Price is around a key higher time-frame support at 1.1140. The EURUSD may find support around this area.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1290, 1.1355 and 1.1375. A bearish move may find support around 1.1110.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

GBPUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been bearish and has formed a strong bearish move lower, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening. The GBPUSD is now down-trending on higher time-frames also, given extra confidence that the trend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3490, 1.3540 and 1.3605. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.3275.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

USDCAD – Continuation of uptrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDCAD is above the recent consolidation area and has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling an uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential trend – they are bullish and widening. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames also.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2780, 1.2770, 1.2725 and 1.2685. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

USDCHF – Potential uptrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the level at 0.9285, as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis.

USDCHF has formed a large bullish move and a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. Price action has also formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening. USDCHF is indecisive on higher time-frames and is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.9090-0.9355.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9225, 0.9215 and 0.9170. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.9270 and 0.9285.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

USDJPY – Market indecision?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bullish.

Price is indecisive and is looking choppy. Price action has formed a higher swing high though, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bullish. USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 114.40, 114.60, 115.70, 115.80 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

A US price index figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

XAUUSD – Continuation of retrace move?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, GOLD has formed a swing higher and has reversed bullish off 1878.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. XAUUSD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1910, 1888, 1879, 1848 and 1841.

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