TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 23, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/22/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-22-2022/

AUDUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation? Possible further indecision?

As suggested in our last analysis, price has broken higher and has been bullish.

The AUDUSD continues to move within the consolidation area but is showing upside momentum – price action has formed a bullish channel and a long series of higher swing highs and lows and the moving averages are bullish and steady – all signalling a possible break higher. Price is nearing the consolidation resistance at 0.7245, suggesting the possible bullish breakout or a potential bearish reversal. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area, if price closes above 0.7245 and around the horizontal levels at 0.7220, 0.7185, 0.7165 and 0.7155. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the consolidation resistance area at 0.7245.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend? Possible 0.8300 reversal?

Price has formed a bullish move off the 0.8300 area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The EURGBP is down-trending and has just formed another lower swing high. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel. As mentioned in previous analysis, EURGBP is around a key higher time-frame support at 0.8300, suggesting potential upside or a strong bearish break lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8355, 0.8380, 0.8395, 0.8410 and 0.8445. A bearish move could find support and become bullish off the 0.8300 area and around the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

UK monetary policy report hearings are scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish.

Price continues to look indecisive but show potential downside momentum – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, as well as a diagonal resistance area. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. EURUSD is indecisive on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1350, 1.1380 and 1.1390. A bearish move may find support around 1.1290 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Clear market indecision. Possible bullish breakout?

The GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is choppy and is moving sideways. GBPUSD has been consolidating for around 3 weeks and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3490-1.3640. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish break of the consolidation.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3520, 1.3540 and 1.3605.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

UK monetary policy report hearings are scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecisive. Possible break-out?

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been finding resistance around the symmetrical triangle resistance area.

USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move within the 4 hour horizontal channel at 1.2655-1.2785 and within the 4 hour symmetrical triangle. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. USDCAD is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and horizontal channel and if price moves out of the consolidation area (breakout trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2670, 1.2675, 1.2725 and 1.2770.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Market indecision? Potential bullish move?

Price has been finding resistance around 0.9215 and 0.9225, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

USDCHF was down-trending and moving within a bearish channel. Price has been bullish through and has swung above the channel resistance area, suggesting that the downtrend could becoming to an end. Price action is now forming a potential inverted head and shoulder pattern, signalling potential upside. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. USDCHF is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance (as support) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9150, 0.9180, 0.9190, 0.9215, 0.9225 and 0.9270.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision? Possible bullish move?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDJPY has become bullish.

Just like USDCHF, the USDJPY has been bullish and has broken key resistance, suggesting that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening – confirming the weakening downside momentum. USDJPY may become indecisive. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 114.25, 114.60, 114.85, 115.25, 115.30, 115.80 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Continuation of retrace move?

GOLD has been bearish and is currently finding support around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a due retrace move. Recent price action has been sideways and the moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – XAUUSD could retrace lower. Price continues to be very bullish on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1887, 1879, 1848 and 1841. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1905 and 1910.

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