TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 22, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/21/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-21-2022/

AUDUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation? Possible further indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD reversed around 0.7220 and around the bullish channel support area.

Price continues to signal bullish momentum and also be indecisive. Price action has formed a bullish channel and a series of higher swing lows and the moving averages are currently bullish and steady, signalling a potential bullish move higher. AUDUSD is also looking choppy though and is struggling to break the resistance at 0.7220. Price action is formed a horizontal channel at 0.7165-0.7220.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7165, 0.7155, 0.7105 and 0.7090. A bullish move could be rejected or fail around the horizontal and bullish channel resistance areas and around the recent highs at 0.7245.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is major NZD news at 0100 & 0200 UTC, which could cause movement on AUD pairs.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bearish and has found support around the 0.8300 area, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURGBP is currently in a retrace move. Price is around a key support area on higher time-frames at 0.8300, suggesting a potential break lower or a bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8325, 0.8355, 0.8395 and 0.8410. A bearish move may continue to find support around the 0.8300 area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision. Potential downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has reversed around 1.1395.

EURUSD has been indecisive and has been moving sideways for about a week. Price is currently bearish though and could be moving out of the consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish and are widening. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs, creating a potential trend resistance area.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area, if EURUSD closes below the consolidation support at 1.1280 and around the horizontal levels at 1.1310 and 1.1390. A bearish move could stall or reversed around the consolidation support area at 1.1280.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Clear market indecision

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to find resistance around 1.3640, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

GBPUSD was showing signs of a potential bullish move above the consolidation area. Price has reversed around the consolidation resistance though and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.3490-1.3640 and GBPUSD is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently for around 2 weeks.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3520 and 1.3580. Trading opportunities could also exist if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecisive. Possible break-out?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding resistance around the symmetrical triangle resistance area.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The USDCAD has been very choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways for almost 3 weeks – the market indecision is very clear. On the 4 hour time-frame, price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2655-1.2785 and also a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2655, 1.2670, 1.2675, 1.2725 and 1.2785. Trading opportunities may also exist if price moves out of the consolidation areas (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Continuation of downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. USDCHF is currently in a retrace move. Price action has also formed a bearish channel and the USDCHF is moving within the channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9180, 0.9190, 0.9215, 0.9225 and 0.9270. A bearish move may find support around 0.9150 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Continuation of downtrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish and has broken lower.

The USDJPY continues to downtrend and be bearish. Price is currently in a retrace move and is nearing trend resistance. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could suddenly become bullish and swing higher.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 114.85, 115.30 and 115.80. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 114.60 and 114.25.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Possible retrace move?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently forming a higher swing high. The uptrend has become very obvious and price is starting to look a little over-extended, signalling a potential retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bullish, signalling that the trend may continue. XAUUSD is starting to look a little over-extended on higher time-frames also.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1905, 1888, 1879, 1848 and 1841.

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