TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 21, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/18/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-18-2022/

AUDUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation? Possible further indecision?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and has been bullish.

The bullish channel from our last analysis has broken but the AUDUSD continues to look bullish, though recent price action has been suggesting market indecision. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the potential upside. Price is moving within a bullish channel but also a potential range at 0.7155-0.7220. The AUDUSD may potentially swing higher or start moving sideways.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7155, 0.7105, 0.7090 and 0.7055. Price may find resistance and even reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7220 and 0.7245.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames and is nearing a key support around at 0.8300. If EURGBP reaches the support area, price could break strongly lower or become strongly bullish.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8355, 0.8395, 0.8410 and 0.8445. A bearish move could find support and even reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8325 and 0.8310.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

German manufacturing and services PMI figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – Indecision, potential break-out?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the EURUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently for over a week and are currently tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. EURUSD broke the range from our previous analysis and is now ranging between 1.1310 and 1.1395. Price may get some trend momentum once the EURUSD breaks the current range. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames also.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1490. A break to the downside may find support around 1.1280.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

German manufacturing and services PMI figures will be released at 0830 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD reversed around the consolidation resistance area and around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price continues to move within a large consolidation at 1.3490-1.3640. The GBPUSD is current bullish though and is signalling that the upside momentum could continue, suggesting a break above the consolidation area. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential upside move.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area, if GBPUSD closes above the consolidation resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3565, 1.3520 and 1.3490. Price could continue to find resistance around 1.3640.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecisive. Possible break-out?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price has been very choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways for almost 3 weeks – the market indecision is very clear. On the 4 hour time-frame, USDCAD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2655-1.2785 and also a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2655, 1.2670, 1.2675, 1.2725 and 1.2785.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Continuation of downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price has been bearish off the shorter-term moving average and has found support around the bearish channel support area.

USDCHF is down-trending within a bearish channel. Price is currently around the channel support area, suggesting a potential bullish retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. On higher time-frames, USDCHF is clearly indecisive.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9215, 0.9225, 0.9270, 0.9280 and 0.9295. An attempt to move lower could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9190 and 0.9180.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Continuation of downtrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been rejected several times around the shorter-term moving average and has been bearish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

USDJPY is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently testing the most recent swing low at 114.85. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move and break higher. This could happen off the current swing low support area at 114.85.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 115.30, 115.80 and 116.15. A bearish move may stall or reverse around 114.85 and 114.25.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Possible indecision?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, GOLD has swung higher and is now in a retrace move.

XAUUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. The current retrace move has formed a range at 1887-1905, signalling market indecision. GOLD could start ranging. XAUUSD is still up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1887, 1879, 1848 and 1841. A bullish move could find resistance around 1905.

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