TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 18, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/17/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-17-2022/

AUDUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD reversed around 0.7210.

Price has been indecisive and has been lacking trend momentum. The moving averages were crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Recent price action has been bullish though, signalling a possible end to the indecision. AUDUSD has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and also a bullish channel. The moving averages are currently bullish and widening – confirming the potential upside.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7155, 0.7105, 0.7090 and 0.7055. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 0.7245.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Continuation of downtrend?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bearish and has moved lower, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Yesterday, it looked like downside momentum was weakening, but EURGBP is currently forming a swing lower and looking bearish again. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is nearing a key horizontal and psychological support at 0.8300.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8350, 0.8395, 0.8410 and 0.8445. EURGBP may find support around 0.8300.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Indecision, potential break-out?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The last 24 hours have been particularly quiet, signalling a potential break-out trade – price could suddenly gain some momentum and volatility. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. EURUSD could range between the horizontal levels at 1.1335 and 1.1395.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if prices moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.1490. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support level at 1.1280.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Bullish break-out of consolidation?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has been finding resistance around the consolidation resistance area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

GBPUSD is ranging between 1.3490-1.3640 and is currently testing the range resistance area. The moving averages have become bullish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt a bullish break-out – the market indecision may becoming to an end. GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential bullish move higher.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, if price closes above the consolidation resistance at 1.3640, and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3605, 1.3565, 1.3520 and 1.3490. GBPUSD may reversed around the consolidation resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Indecisive. Possible bearish move lower?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding support around 1.2670.

Price action has been choppy and indecisive for over a couple of weeks now – price is clearly lacking trend direction. The USDCAD has formed a series of lower swing highs, suggesting that bearish momentum is building. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2645, 1.2655, 1.2675, 1.2725, 1.2745 and 1.2775.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Continuation of downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area and the horizontal support at 0.9190, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price continues to be below the recent consolidation at 0.9225-0.9280, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening. Price action has formed a bearish channel and a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9225 and 0.9270. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9190 and 0.9180.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Continuation of downtrend?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish and has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average.

The USDJPY is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move and is testing a resistance area. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 115.30, 115.80 and 116.15. A bearish move could find support or even reverse around 114.85 and 114.25.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Continuation of uptrend? Possible retrace move?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has closed higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of clear swing highs and swing lows. XAUUSD is currently forming a swing higher and may be due a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. GOLD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1879, 1848 and 1841. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1900.

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