TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 16, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/02/15/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-february-15-2022/

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price continues to look indecisive, despite the recent upside. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. AUDUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7035, 0.7055, 0.7090, 0.7105, 0.7180 and 0.7245.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, EURGBP reversed around the longer-term moving average.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURGBP continues to be indecisive on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8395, 0.8410, 0.8445 and 0.8475. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8345 and 0.8310.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

EURUSD is below a recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the potential trend. Price is currently in a retrace move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around 1.1400. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.1280.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 1.3490.

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3445, 1.3490, 1.3565, 1.3610 and 1.3640.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is choppy and is indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2645-1.2790 and USDCAD is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2645, 1.2655, 1.2665, 1.2700, 1.2780 and 1.2790. Trading opportunities may also exist if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. A Canadian CPI figure will be released at the same time. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

USDCHF

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the range support area.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The USDCHF is ranging between 0.9225 and 0.9285.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9295 and 0.9340. A break to the downside may find support around 0.9180.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDJPY is indecisive and has been moving sideways. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 114.25, 114.95, 115.05, 115.25 and 116.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1900 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bullish off the longer-term moving average.

GOLD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. XAUUSD is currently in a retrace move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1848, 1841, 1823 and 1813. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent swing high at 1879.

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