TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 01, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2022/01/31/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-january-31-2022/

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average.

The AUDUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of large lower swings. Price is currently in a retrace move. AUDUSD has swung above both moving averages and the moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that price may struggle to swing lower – the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7100, 0.7125, 0.7175 and 0.7225. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022. Inflation pressures in Australia seem to be less than in other countries.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The EURGBP is choppy and is moving sideways – price is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8310, 0.8335, 0.8340, 0.8345, 0.8355 and 0.8375.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The EURUSD has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are becoming bullish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing lower – the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1305, 1.1330, 1.1350 and 1.1365. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.1125.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They believe that the current spike in inflation is transitionary.

US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The GBPUSD is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung above the moving averages and is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3445, 1.3425 and 1.3370. A bullish move could stall or reverse around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3490, 1.3520, 1.3570 and 1.3655.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate to 0.25%. Inflation is a concern. The UK Unemployment rate is expected to fall.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average.

USDCAD has since been bearish and has swung lower. Price is up-trending and is currently in a strong retrace move. USDCAD is below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that upside momentum is weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2660, 1.2565 and 1.2520. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2760 and 1.2790.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently finding support around the 50.0% Fib level, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

USDCHF is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Just like other FX pairs, price has swung passed the moving averages, signalling that trend momentum could be weakening.

Buying opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9200 and 0.9175. A bullish move could find resistance around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9270, 0.9295 and 0.9340.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is currently bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 115.20, 115.55 and 115.65. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 114.55 and 114.10.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed will be cautious about raising rates, especially with the current Omnicron breakout.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

US manufacturing PMI and job openings figures will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish.

Price action formed a large bearish move and has since been in a retrace move. XAUUSD is below a number of key support levels, signalling that price could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1810, 1822, 1828 and 1831. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1783.

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