TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – October, November & December 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/08/09/triumphfx-forex-analysis-usd-pairs-july-august-september-2021/

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and swing lower, as suggested in our last AUDUSD analysis.

AUDUSD is currently moving sideways and is starting to look indecisive – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The daily moving averages continue to signal potential downside though – they are bearish and widening. Price may start ranging between 0.7120 and 0.7450.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7000, 0.7120, 0.7180, 0.7450, 0.7585, 0.7855 and 0.7975.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same until 2024. The RBA are expecting an economic bounce back during 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

EURUSD – Daily Chart

EURUSD Daily Chart

The EURUSD has been bearish.

Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. The EURUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1620, 1.1670, 1.1890 and 1.2250.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. Inflation targets and economic growth forecasts have been lifted for this year.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

GBPUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around 1.3400.

Price has been bearish and has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a potential downtrend. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside. GBPUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3860, 1.3990 and 1.4225. A bearish move may find support around 1.3610, 1.3425 and 1.3130.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected, although inflation fears have been mentioned by many.

USDCAD – Daily Chart

USDCAD Daily Chart

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our last USD chart analysis.

USDCAD is now looking indecisive, despite a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.2445 and 1.2845. USDCAD is potentially down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2040. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2890, 1.3000 and 1.3385.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

USDCHF – Daily Chart

USDCHF Daily Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish.

Price was indecisive but has recently been bullish. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9260, 0.9230, 0.9100, 0.9040 and 0.8945. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.9440.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until 2022. The Swiss economy is recovering from COVID and seems stable.

USDJPY – Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, USDJPY reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently swinging higher. USDJPY has recently broken above a bullish resistance area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is also showing a potential uptrend on the weekly time-frame – adding confidence that the bullish direction may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous bullish channel, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 111.55, 110.75, 109.00, 107.85, 107.00 and 106.10.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is expected to make a moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but some analysts are stating that the Japanese economy is stagnant and may experience economic challenges in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected and is making a strong economic recovery post-COVID. Inflation has elevated and may continue to do so in the coming months.

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