TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 04, 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/10/01/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-october-01-2021/

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

AUDUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames – providing no clear indication of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7225, 0.7240, 0.7315, 0.7340 and 0.7375.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is currently forecast to stay the same until 2024. COVID continues to put weight on economic recovery and GDP.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The RBA will release a rate statement at 0330 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8505, 0.8530, 0.8545, 0.8575, 0.8590, 0.8620 and 0.8650.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD was finding resistance around the 23.6% Fib level.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1685, 1.1705 and 1.1750. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1605 and 1.1565.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. GBPUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3610, 1.3660, 1.3715, 1.3745 and 1.3770. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3485, 1.3450 and 1.3415.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The USDCAD has been indecisive but is showing signs of a potential bearish move. Price action has formed a large bearish channel and has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are crossing frequently though – still suggesting market indecision. The USDCAD is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2655, 1.2730 and 1.2770. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.2600 and around the channel support area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding support around 0.9285.

The USDCHF is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung below the moving averages and trend support area, signalling that the USDCHF could struggle to swing higher – upside momentum could be weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal levels at 0.9285, 0.9250 and 0.9220. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9330 and 0.9365.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until 2022. The Swiss economy is recovering from COVID and seems stable.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than original expected.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is currently finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the USDJPY may struggle to swing higher. Price is around a key higher time-frame resistance area, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 110.85, 110.15 and 110.00. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 111.25, 111.65 and 112.00.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is expected to make a moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, GOLD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are currently bullish and widening, suggesting a potential uptrend.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1745, 1733 and 1723. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1764, 1779 and 1784.

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