TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 01, 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/09/30/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-september-30-2021/

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 0.7240.

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7240, 0.7315 and 0.7340. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.7175.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is currently forecast to stay the same until 2024. COVID continues to put weight on economic recovery and GDP.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting market indecision – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Buying opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8575 and 0.8530. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8620 and 0.8650.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today, which will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish.

The EURUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1685 and 1.1705.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend may continue – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3610 and 1.3660. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.3415.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2600, 1.2655, 1.2770, 1.2835 and 1.2860.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been finding support around the 38.2% Fib level and the trend support area, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9285 and 0.9250. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.9365.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until 2022. The Swiss economy is recovering from COVID and seems stable.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than original expected.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has reversed around 112.00.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing higher. Price is around key higher time-frame resistance, signalling a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 110.15 and 110.00. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 111.25, 111.65 and 112.05.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is expected to make a moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.

A US core price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has found resistance around 1760, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1723, 1745, 1760, 1779 and 1784.

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