TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 18, 2021
Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/08/17/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-17-2021/
AUDUSD
As suggested in our last chart analysis, AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower.
Price is down-trending and is currently in a small retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames – adding confidence that the current downside could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7315, 0.7325 and 0.7380. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.7245.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is currently forecast to stay the same until 2024. COVID continues to put weight on economic recovery and GDP.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.
FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP
EURGBP reversed around the bullish channel resistance area, as suggested in our last analysis.
Price is now coming off the shorter-term moving average, as also suggested. EURGBP is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is looking indecisive on higher time-frames.
Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8515 and 0.8480. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8530 and 0.8555.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.
The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD
Price has been bearish.
EURUSD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the potential market indecision. If price closes below 1.1705, EURUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1705, 1.1730, 1.1750, 1.1800 and 1.1830.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. They have said that no rate change is expected in the near or distant future. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.
FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
GBPUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.
GBPUSD is down-trending. Price has swung below the recent bearish channel and is looking very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the previous bearish channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.3795, 1.3880 and 1.3890. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.3725.
The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.
FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
USDCAD
The USDCAD has been finding support around 1.2600, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. The USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.
Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2600, 1.2585 and 1.2530.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve.
A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.
USDCHF
The USDCHF has been indecisive, as suggested in our last analysis.
Price is currently moving sideways and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9025, 0.9075, 0.9105, 0.9165, 0.9210 and 0.9240.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until 2022. The Swiss economy is recovering from COVID and seems stable.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originall expected.
FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
USDJPY
Price has been bullish.
The USDJPY is currently bullish but is overall indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 108.75, 109.15, 109.80, 110.10, 110.30, 110.50 and 110.80.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than originally expected.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is expected to make a moderate recovery from the COVID crisis.
FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.
XAUUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around 1794.
GOLD has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, suggesting that price may attempt a move higher.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1722, 1747, 1757, 1772, 1781, 1795, 1807 and 1831.
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